World Cup is flying by.  Today is day #12 already!  2 of the 3 Group Stage matches have now been played in all 8 groups.  Here’s a breakdown of where we stand in each group, a look at how poorly all my picks have been, and what each team needs to do in order to ensure they survive group play and advance to the knockout stage.

Group A

How many people absolutely love what is happening with the French right now?  I know I do.  Two matches, zero goals, zero wins, one draw, and one loss.  They kicked off their starting striker.  Two coaches quit in the middle of a practice.  And the entire team refused to practice on Sunday, as a result of everything.

They were back to practice yesterday, and today they face off with South Africa, who they must beat to have a chance to advance.  Just beating them isn’t enough, though.  They must beat them, hope either Uruguay or Mexico loses to each other (game can’t end in a draw for France), and make up the goal differential with whichever team loses.

As I expected, Mexico and Uruguay are in complete control of this group.  Both teams are 1-0-1, with Uruguay having a +3 differential and Mexico having a +2.  They play this morning, and if either team wins they’ll take first place in Group A.  A draw means they both advance, and Uruguay wins Group A.

France and South Africa play in the other Group A match.  France is 0-1-1 with a -2 goal differential, and South Africa is -3.  In order for either of these teams to advance, they must win, have Uruguay or Mexico lose, and finish with a better goal differential than that team.  A nearly impossible task at this point.

For me, Mexico has been far and away the most impressive team in this group.  I expected them to win the group when the World Cup began, and I still expect the same result.  I think they’ll beat Uruguay today.  Finishing first in Group A is very important, because in the Round of 16 Group A matches up with Group B.  That means whoever falls to second in group A has a first round date with Argentina – which both Uruguay and Mexico want to avoid.

Look for Mexico to beat Uruguay, and even though I originally predicted South Africa and France to draw, I see South Africa getting their first World Cup victory in a few minutes.

Sharkey's Group A Record: 3-1

Group B

Argentina has dominated play in this group, and the other three teams have surprised for varying reasons.

Right now, Argentina has 6 points with a +4 GD.  South Korea and Greece both have 3 points and a -1 GD, while Nigeria is last with 0 points and a -2 GD.

Mathematically, all four teams are still alive, although its hard to imagine Argentina not advancing, just as it’s hard to imagine Nigeria figuring out a way to play well and advance.

For Argentina, its simple, win or draw and you win Group B, and play second in Group A.  They face Greece in the final match, who has been a big surprise.  It’s no secret I thought Greece was awful.  I’m as shocked as any that they won a match, although it took a stupid red card penalty by Nigeria in the 30′ of a match in order to allow that to happen.  Greece advances with a win, and a South Korea loss to Nigeria, or a win and a South Korean win, if Greece outscores South Korea.

Likewise, for South Korea, they advance with a win, and a Greek loss, or a win and a Greek win, with South Korea outscoring Greece.  If both teams win and the goal differential is still tied, South Korea would win the tiebreaker because they beat Greece 2-0.

The only way South Korea and Greece both advance is if Greece beats Argentina, and South Korea beats Nigeria by more than 5 goals.  AKA Argentina is advancing.

Argentina should beat Greece, which means South Korea controls their own destiny.  Beat Nigeria and advance.  If Greece loses, and Nigeria beats South Korea, all three teams will be tied with 3 points.  If this happens and Nigeria beats South Korea by 1 goal, South Korea advances.  If all three teams are tied and Nigeria wins by 2 or more goals, Nigeria advances.  Greece cannot advance with a loss.

I expect Argentina to beat Greece, and I see South Korea beating Nigeria; even though originally I predicted Nigeria to beat South Korea and Nigeria to advance out of group play.

Sharkey's Group B Record: 3-1

Group C

Ah, Group C.  Who hasn’t read every possible scenario on this group already?  Who isn’t still fuming over Koman Coulibaly’s blown call in the 86th minute of the Slovenia-US match?  Who isn’t eagerly awaiting 9:30 EDT tomorrow morning?

Slovenia and Algeria have both proven to be much tougher outs than anybody expected.  England has looked atrocious, while the US has had two very good halfs (first half vs England, second half vs Slovenia), and two very bad halfs.

I actually projected the US to draw England and draw Slovenia, and have only 2 points going into the final match with Algeria.  Things are better than I anticipated, though, because I expected Slovenia and England to both have 4 points at this point.  I never considered England would be unable to beat Algeria.

Now, because of that, the United States controls their own destiny.  Just beat Algeria, and you advance.  No scoreboard watching.  What happens in the England-Slovenia match means nothing as far as the US advancing.  It does play a factor in the US finishing first or second, but that’s not important.  What’s important is the win.

Win and advance.  If the US finishes first, they may play Ghana, Australia, Germany, or Serbia.  If they finish second, they may play Ghana, Australia, Germany, or Serbia.  It doesn’t matter where we finish.  Just advance, and then we’ll worry about our next opponent.

When the World Cup began, I said US would beat Algeria, and England would beat Slovenia.  Despite everything that has happened, I’m sticking with that.  US and England will both move on, although now it appears the US may actually win Group C.

Sharkey's Group C Record: 3-1

Group D

What an exciting group this has been.  Despite what everyone said about Group G, I always thought this was the real Group of Death.  Take out Germany’s 4-0 romp of Australia, and this has been the most exciting group in the World Cup.

Ghana/Serbia was a great match, Serbia’s upset of Germany was thrilling, and watching Australia go a man down vs Ghana in only the 22′ and still hang on for a WC-saving 1-1 draw was nothing short of miraculous.

Now we enter the final set of matches (tomorrow, 2:30 PM EDT) with all four teams having a shot at advancing.

Right now, Ghana sits atop the group with 4 points and a +1 GD.  Germany is 2nd with 3 points and a +3 GD.  Serbia sits in third, also with 3 points, but with a 0 GD.  And Australia is in last, with 1 point and a -4 GD, but they are still alive… barely.

For Ghana and Germany, it’s simple.  Win, and advance.  They play each other in one of the more interesting final matches of Group play.  If Ghana wins, they shock the world and finish first in Group D, and likely find themselves as the only African nation to advance.

If the two teams draw, and Australia beats Serbia or Serbia draws Australia, Ghana will still win the group.  After that, things get interesting.

Ghana can still advance with a loss, if Serbia and Australia draw, or if Australia beats Serbia by less than 5 goals.

Germany advances with a draw if Serbia loses to Australia, and Australia doesn’t win by 7 or more goals.  If Germany draws and Serbia draws or wins, Germany is eliminated, and Serbia will join Ghana in the Round of 16.

Serbia also controls their own destiny.  If they beat Australia they advance, regardless of what happens in the Ghana-Germany game.

When the World Cup began, I said Serbia would win the Group, and Germany would finish second.  In order for that to happen, Germany and Serbia must both win.  Goal totals or differentials aren’t important.  Just win, and Serbia is first and Germany is second.

I’ll stick with that prediction right now, despite the fact that Ghana has looked great.  I think Serbia and Germany both win tomorrow, and both advance.

Sharkey's Group D Record: 1-3

Group E

This group is very easy to break down for you.  Netherlands is in first place, and they’ve already clinched a spot in the round of 16.  They are 2-0-0 for 6 points, and a +3 GD.  Cameroon is last place, with 0 points and a -2 GD.  They’ve already been eliminated.

That leaves Denmark and Japan, which have each beaten Cameroon and lost to Netherlands.  They each have 3 points, with Japan having a 0 GD and Denmark having a -1.

Thursday morning, Japan and Denmark play.  The winner of that joins Netherlands in advancing out of group play.  If they draw, Japan advances for having a better goal differential.

Netherlands will finish first in the group, unless it loses to Cameroon and the winner of Japan/Denmark finishes with a goal differential better than the Dutch.

I don’t see any way the Dutch lose to Cameroon, so that’s not even worth getting in to.  When the World Cup began, I had the Netherlands winning group E, and I’m sticking to that.  I also had Denmark finishing second and making it out of Group play, and I still expect that to happen.

Netherlands and Denmark both win on Thursday, and both make it to the Round of 16.

Sharkey's Group E Record: 1-3

Group F

This group is very much a mirror image of Group C.  One team is 1-0-1, has 4 points, and is in the drivers seat (Paraguay).  Two teams are 0-0-2 for 2 points, and despite that rough start, both teams advance with a win (Italy and New Zealand).  And one team is 0-1-1 with 1 point, but is still mathematically alive (Slovakia).

New Zealand plays Paraguay while Italy plays Slovakia.  All these matches are Thursday at 2:30 PM EDT.

If Paraguay beats New Zealand, it advances, and finishes first in Group F.

For New Zealand and Italy, all you have to do is win and you advance out of the Group stage, although whether that’s in first or second is not yet known.

If Paraguay and New Zealand draw, Paraguay still advances.  If New Zealand beats Paraguay, New Zealand obviously advances, and Paraguay can still advance if Italy and Slovakia draw, or Italy beats Slovakia by less than 2 goals, or Slovakia beats Italy by less than 4 goals.

For New Zealand, a win means advancement.  If New Zealand loses, they are eliminated.

Basically the same thing for Italy.  A win means you move on.  A loss means you go home.  Italy can still advance with a draw, if Paraguay beats New Zealand.

If both games end in a draw, Paraguay has 5 points and advances, while Italy and New Zealand will be tied with 3 points and a 0 GD.  If either team outscores the other in drawing the final match, that team will advance.  If they finish tied with 3 points, with a 0 GD, and with the same number of goals scored, sadly, second place in Group F will come down to a coin toss.

For Slovakia, it’s simply, beat Italy and have Paraguay beat New Zealand, and you advance.  Simply in theory, except there’s no way Slovakia beats Italy.

My Group F has gone to hell, as I predicted Italy to win it and Slovakia to finish second.  That’s not possible.  Now, on Thursday afternoon, I expect Italy to beat Slovakia and Paraguay to beat New Zealand, which means Paraguay wins the group and Italy finishes second.

Sharkey's Group F Record: 0-4

Group G

The Group of Death!  At least according to everyone in the world.  All this group was was death for North Korea, and a crappy draw for the Ivory Coast.

Brazil is first, and 2-0-0 with 6 points, and has already clinched a berth in the next round.  Portugal is second at 1-0-1 with 4 points, Ivory Coast is 0-1-1 with 1 point, and North Korea is eliminated at 0-2-0.

Portugal and Brazil play on Friday morning.  The winner of that match will win Group G.  If they draw, Brazil wins group G.  If they draw, Portugal still advances.

In order for Portugal to not advance, they must lose to Brazil (easy enough to imagine), Ivory Coast must beat North Korea (easy enough to imagine), and Ivory Coast must finish with a better goal differential than Portugal.  That’s where things get tricky.  Right now, Ivory Coast has a -2 goal differential, while Portugal has a +7.

Basically, Portugal and Brazil advance, it’s just a matter of which team is first, and which is second.

Before the World Cup, I had Brazil first, and Portugal second.  I’ll stick with that.  I look for Brazil to beat Portugal, and take first, while Ivory Coast beats North Korea, leaving both Portugal and Ivory Coast with 4 points, tied for second.  I don’t see Ivory Coast making up that goal differential, so I see Portugal advancing to the elimination stage.

Sharkey's Group G Record: 3-1

Group H

While most of the world was still reeling from Spain’s shocking loss to Switzerland last week, the Spaniards were going about business as usual.  They went into yesterdays game with Honduras, and took care of everything they had to, as calmly as possible.

Now, even though they sit in second place, tied with the team that beat them, Spain can very easily win this group.  Right now, Chile is in the lead with 6 points and a +2 GD, Spain with 3 points and a +1 GD, Switzerland also with 3 points, but a 0 GD, and Honduras at 0 points with a -3 GD.

That means if Spain beats Chile on Friday, they’ll be tied with 6 points, but Spain will have the better goal differential.  If this happens, and Honduras beats or draws Switzerland, Spain wins the group and Chile also advances.

If Switzerland beats Honduras and Spain wins, there will be a 3-way tie in which everything comes down to goal differential.  Depending on the scores of those games, this could go any way.  If any of these teams were to end up tied, and tied in goal differential (impossible for Chile and Spain to tie in GD), and tied in goals scored, the next tiebreaker would be head to head.  In this case, Switzerland holds that tiebreaker over Spain, and Chile holds that tiebreaker over Switzerland.  So basically any one of those teams can finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.

Another possibility is Chile and Honduras winning, which will put Chile at 9 points and the rest of the group at 3.  Again, this is where the GD comes into play.  This will be a very interesting group to watch play on Friday, because not only does it matter what each team does, but it will very much matter how they do it.

Unfortunately for Chile, I expect Spain to come to play.  Chile’s best case scenario is to only lose by one goal.  Then, they must hope the Swiss only beat lowly Honduras by one goal.  I can see a pair of 1-0 games here, which will allow Spain to win the group, and Chile to also advance.

I originally picked Spain and Switzerland to win these two matches, which I will continue to do.  I’ve been pretty much right in this group, with the exception of the unbelievably wrong selection of Spain over Switzerland.

Sharkey's Group H Record: 3-1

Sharkey's World Cup Record: 17-15