Part Four of a Nine Part Series in which Sharkey and the ManInBlack preview the entire NFL Season, all the way through the Super Bowl.  Today, the guys take a look at the AFC South.

Sharkey Says:

For some reason, this division quite often gets labeled as the best in the NFL, from top to bottom.  At the top, Indianapolis, this division is as good as any other division.  The other three teams, while solid, aren’t close to being on the same level as Indianapolis.  If you enter every season with one team that is head and shoulders better than the rest, then your division isn’t the best in the NFL.

This division isn’t the best, and the Colts are once again going to run away with it.  Right now, I have them penciled in to finish 14-2.  It may be a tad high, but I think it’s accurate.  I’m thoroughly convinced that this team is better than the team that went to the Super Bowl last year, and I also believe the rest of the division is worse.  The only reason this team may not reach 14 wins is because is has to play the NFC East, the division which truly is the best in football from top to bottom.

The Houston Texans are once again the sexy pick to make the playoffs, or even upset the Colts, or even make a Super Bowl run.  Really?  This team has a quarterback who has breakout games, but not breakout seasons, no running game worth mentioning, a less than stellar coach, an emerging star LB (Brian Cushing) suspended for a quarter of the season, and a less-than-impressive 1-5 record vs. the AFC South last season.  I’m not buying the hype.  8-8 sounds right for this team, and the playoffs certainly aren’t in their immediate future.

Which 2009 Tennessee Titans team do you believe in?  The one that started 0-6, or the one that finished 8-2?  Most people seem to believe in the one that finished 8-2.  A lot of people seem to think this is a team that can compete for the division title, or even a first round bye.  These people clearly didn’t look at last season, and see that those eight Tennessee wins were against Jacksonville, San Francisco, Buffalo, Houston, Arizona, St. Louis, Miami, and Seattle.  Not exactly murderer’s row.  This team is improved, but it’s still a combination of 0-6 and 8-2.  Add it all together, and that makes this a 9-7 team.

Which leaves the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Just stop.  They’re not good.  They’re not going to compete with Indianapolis, nor are they going to fight for a playoff spot.  This is a team that needs to be blown up and completely re-invented.  Particularly on defense.  This may surprise some people, but I only have Jacksonville going 4-12 this year.  They’re bad.

ManInBlack says:

Wow, you’re really down on Jacksonville.  I didn’t have them blowing people away, but 4-12 is underestimating them quite a bit, I think.  I can’t say they’ve neccessarily improved a whole lot this offseason, but I think 4-12 is really overlooking them.  I have them at a mediocre 8-8.

I’m right with you on the Colts.  They’re head and shoulders above everyone else.  I have them at 13-3, the best team in the AFC.  I think there are teams they could lose to in the playoffs, but I think they’ll have their normal dominant regular season and slap the rest of the division around.

Everyone wants the Texans to impove.  Get over the hump.  But they never have, and until they at least get double-digits in the win column, I’m not going to pick them outside of the .500 range.  I threw them a bone, actually, and put them at 9-7 because of the Schaub/Johnson hookup.

Your math skills really impressed me on that Titans breakdown, despite the fact that 0-6 + 8-2 actually equals 8-8.  But I’ll assume you were speaking in some sort of metaphor.  Your 9-7 prediction is totally doable for this team, but I have less faith.  I think a 9-7 team + a Vince Young mental breakdown = a 7-9 showing for the Titans.

Sharkey Says:

To stick up for my math skills, I said the Titans are an improved version of 0-6 + 8-2.  0-6 + 8-2 equals 8-8, but if you improve upon that, you get 9-7.  Yes, I know, this is a stretch here, but that’s how we do math in NJ.

The Jaguars are one of those teams where when I finished going through the entire NFL schedule, I was shocked by the final record I predicted for them.  I don’t think they’re an awful team.  They’re not a playoff contender, and I’d be shocked if they went even .500, but I’m not sure they’re really only a 4-12 team.  Yet, I ran the numbers, and that’s what I came up with.  So 4-12 it is.

And I will say, considering some of the massive disagreements you & I have regarding the 2010 NFL Season (which everyone else will read in the coming days), it’s refreshing to see you agree with me completely on the fact that the Houston Texans are better in people’s heads than they are on the football field.