Over the next month or so, you’ll read a lot of print telling you how if this goes right and that goes right, your NFL team can make the playoffs, or win its division, or win the Super Bowl.  Most of what they say is true; with the right breaks, in the NFL, any team can accomplish any thing any season.

How often do teams catch all those right breaks, though?  It happens, sure.  Usually the team that wins the Super Bowl has everything line up in their favor for five straight months.  But for most teams things go poorly, not so well that they win their last game.

Everything went perfectly for New Orleans last season.

Take the New Orleans Saints last year.  They start off play in an NFC South division that is among the toughest in the NFL.  Then, mysteriously, the Panthers are awful.  The Buccaneers are even worse than expected.  And Matt Ryan and Michael Turner can’t find their 2008 magic.  Couple that together with a defense that meshes perfectly with its new defensive coordinator, and a lethal-when-hot offense that suffers no major injuries, and the Saints flew to a 13-3 record.  Then, in the NFC Championship, they are able to force OT because Brett Favre injures his ankle in the game, and on a key 3rd down late in the game, he is forced to make a bad throw instead of just running an easy 5 yards to set up a Minnesota game winning field goal.

In the Super Bowl, their perfect storm was completed, and the city of New Orleans won their first Super Bowl.  This is not taking anything away from the Saints, but it’s very clear that every little thing went right for them last year.  This usually always happens for a Super Bowl champion.

Unfortunately, for the Saints, its unlikely this will happen for a second straight year.  For starters, no NFC South team has ever made the playoffs in back to back years.  This includes former Super Bowl Champions, and former NFC Champions.  In fact, since the NFC South was formed in 2002, in all but one year the division champion was the last place team the prior season.

ERP wonders if we'll ever see the Saints Bag Heads again?

There are a lot of things going against the Saints this year, and I’d have a hard time picking them to go to the Super Bowl again this season.  Tampa Bay fans shouldn’t get too excited, either, because they are not about to be the latest team to go from worst to first in the NFC South.  It’s more likely that we watch Josh Freeman become the next Alex Smith, as he’s in for a long season.

The Panthers have the youngest roster in the NFL, and a new QB for the first time in nearly a decade.  They finished the season 4-1 last year, and have a lethal running game.  But there is no offensive line here, and Stewart and Williams aren’t going to be happy both rushing for 1100 yards again, when both think they’re capable of getting 1600.  Bickering is likely to happen, eventually, and we’ve seen situations like this ruin an entire season.

This leaves the Atlanta Falcons, in the NFC South, a team that was an aberration in 2009, when Turner and Ryan took a step back.  Everyone is saying they look great this year, and they’re ready to take that next step and become an elite team in the NFC.  How many times have we heard that before?  Sounds just like what everyone was saying about the Bears at this time last year, doesn’t it?  What if ’09 wasn’t the aberration, what if 2008 was?

Speaking of the Bears, Matt Forte should bounce back.  But you’re still led by an overrated QB with a 24-29 career record, an aging defense, and a coach who should have been let go two years ago.  What really makes you think this year will be better than last year?

The Jay Cutler hype has all died in Chicago. Can it ever get its momentum back?

The Detroit Lions have been an up and coming team for nearly a decade now.  Once again, this is the year they take that next big step, and win 7 or 8 games.  The future is bright.  Right… I’ll believe it when I see it.

The Packers are the hot pick to win the NFC this year, and I buy it.  They have the pieces to win the Super Bowl, and if they get all the right breaks, it can definitely be their season.  Sounds like just about every other season in Green Bay history over the last 15 years, doesn’t it?  Rodgers is a great fantasy QB, but can he actually take the next step and become a great clutch NFL QB?

The Minnesota Vikings aren’t even worth discussing.  You want a worst-case scenario for them?  Easy.  Brett Favre doesn’t return.  Picture that.

Speaking of QBs, Washington has a new one.  And a new coach.  And a pretty good roster from top to bottom.  And three 45 year old running backs.  All of a sudden, Donovan McNabb is a great QB, and Mike Shanahan is a great coach.  When did that happen?  What has Shanahan ever done without Elway and Davis?  And McNabb has quarterbacked some of the most stacked NFL rosters of the last decade, and what does he have to show for it?  Why is this experiment going to be any different for either of these guys?

As for McNabb’s former team, they should be great.  Or, Kevin Kolb could become the next Matt Schaub… a great few games earns him big money and a starting spot on a loaded offense, and he parlays that into 8 great games a year, and 8 awful games.  Speaking of 8 great games and 8 awful games, around New York the Giants are picking up steam as a team that can return to glory this year.  Apparently Antrel Rolle and Keith Bulluck are the answer?  If other NFL teams knew that, they’d have all gotten those players years ago.

So that leaves America’s team in the NFC East, and there are already cracks in this team.  The drama never stops in Big D, and after 6 days of training camp its clear this isn’t the year it finally does end.  How many times has this crazy talented team looked great for stretches of a season, and gotten destroyed in their last game and sent to a depressing offseason?  Wade Phillips is still not the answer, and there are more ego’s on this team than there are leaders.  Do you think any team with someone like Ray Lewis, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Hines Ward, or Drew Brees would ever allow a situation like the Dez Bryant shoulder pad situation to take place?  Never.  There’s no leadership on this team, and they’ll sink because of it.

As a Giants fan, Sharkey likes the Tony Romo era way more than he did the Troy Aikman era.

The NFC West is just full of bad.  Is Matt Leinart the answer?  He hasn’t been for the last five years.  Can the 49ers put it all together?  They’re the sexy pick this year.  Other recent sexy picks?  Every Texans team of the last 5 years, the 2009 Dolphins, the 2009 Bears, and the 2009 Falcons.  I have a way easier time picturing Alex Smith, like Matt Leinart, not being the answer, and the 49ers struggling to go 8-8.  The Seahawks are going to be plain bad this year, because they’re the only team in America that thinks Charlie Whitehurst is the answer, or ever could be.  And the Rams aren’t worth mentioning.

So if we’re looking for optimism in a column full of pessimism, it’s this:  you don’t have to be good to win the NFC West.

The same can almost be said for the AFC West.  The Chiefs have a bright future because of the hiring of Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel.  They have two great running backs, one old, one young, and they have the next Troy Polamalu at safety in Eric Berry.  Doesn’t mean things are going to be good this year.  Doesn’t mean Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones are really great, or that Weis and Crennel weren’t just products of coaching loaded Patriot teams under Bill Belicheck.

The Raiders I actually love this year, and I think they can be a playoff team.  Or, Jason Campbell can prove that Washington was right, and he’s a bad quarterback.  Speaking of bad quarterbacks, Denver is in for a long, long season.  It’s amazing how quickly everyone jumped off the Josh McDaniels’ train after that 6-0 start.  Look for a rotating door of quarterbacks, and a coach’s huge ego in believing he can fix anything, to sink this ship.

...and then, all of Denver cheered! Hooray for having our own Big Three...

In San Diego, LDT is gone, and there’s a ton of talent that may not play this year at all because of contract situations.  It’s time for Philip Rivers to prove this is his team.  Best case scenario… he’s able to do that, and then in the playoffs San Diego screws something up and loses to one of the many teams in the AFC that are much better than they are.

Take the AFC South, for example.  I can make the argument that every team in this division is better than the Chargers.  I won’t, though, because I don’t believe it.  As I’ve mentioned 15 times already, the Texans are a great up and coming team with a loaded offense, and a loaded defense, who should take the league by storm this year and win 11+ games.  Sound familiar?  The definition of insanity, as I said last week in the power rankings, is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.  Anyone who expects the Texans to win 11+ games this year is insane.

In Jacksonville, you’re looking at a possible division championship if you’re in the NFC West… or AFC West.  But you’re not.  A 6-4 record outside of your division (that’s against a schedule with all four NFC East opponents) may still not even be good enough to get your team to 8-8 this year.

Peyton Manning is good.  The Colts are good.  The Colts are going to the playoffs.  What’s not to be excited about with this team?  One Super Bowl in 12 seasons since the arrival of Peyton, that’s what.  Are Colts’ fans thinking more about championship #2 right now, or are they thinking about how they’ll find a way to choke again?

Quarterbacks with one Super Bowl... Jim McMahon, Doug Williams, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, and baby brother...

Speaking of choking again, enter VY and the Tennessee Titans.  The list of things that can go wrong with this team this year is too long to get into in this column, so I’ll let you use your imagination.  As far as Chris Johnson, their 2000 yard rusher, goes, he is predicting he’ll rush for 2500 yards this year.  Obviously that’s not going to happen.  Neither is 2000 yards again.  1500 yards might be a stretch, too.

There have been 5 other 2000 yard rushers in NFL history.  In the years following their 2000 yard season, they rushed for 1125, 1234, 1491, 211, and 1006 yards.  And the 1491 yard season was by Barry Sanders.  Chris Johnson is not Barry Sanders.

The 1006 yard season was by Jamal Lewis, the most recent 2000 yard rusher.  Chris Johnson had better hope his career doesn’t mirror Jamal’s, as Jamal was just cut by the Cleveland Browns.  The Cleveland Browns, hell, the entire city of Cleveland, is stuck inside of a glass half empty era right now, and I see no reason to explain it any further.

The Bengals just added T.O., and now people think they can become a Super Bowl contender.  Really?  Try this one on for size… Carson Palmer tweaks his shoulder early on, Cedric Benson has a hard time finding the gaps like he has recently, the defense gives up 30+ points twice in the first five weeks, and by Columbus Day the Bengals are 3 games behind the Ravens.  How does the rest of the season play out?  Certainly not with a great second half that allows them to sneak into the playoffs and then wreak havoc on the rest of the AFC.

The Ravens, like the Packers in the NFC, are this years AFC ‘it’ pick.  I buy it.  I had them at #2 in my pre-camp power rankings last week.  Or, Joe Flacco could have already reached his peak, Ray Rice could have happen this season what happened to Matt Forte last season, Ed Reed could never return to form, and this team could struggle to go 9-7.

The leaves the door open for Pittsburgh to win the AFC North.  Right.  Their star QB is out for 4 to 6 games.  So that means after not playing football for over a month, and watching his team either do well, or do poorly, Roethlisberger comes back and faces Miami, New Orleans, Cincinnati, and New England in back to back to back to back weeks.  Are you having a hard time picturing how things can go poorly for the Steelers?  Me either.

Luckily for the Steelers, shortly after that stretch, they get the Buffalo Bills.  The Bills, like the Browns and Rams, are so bad that it’s not worth explaining how things can go wrong for them.

Their divisional rivals, the Miami Dolphins, though, it is worth explaining.  ERP got some heat last week for having the Dolphins at #22.  That means there are a lot of people who think Chad Henne is the answer, Brandon Marshall is healthy, Ricky Williams still has a lot of gas left in the tank, and that defense isn’t going to fall apart.  7-9 still sounds right to me.

The Patriots are a playoff team until Tom Brady goes away, which is quite a ways away from today.  It usually takes 2 years to recover from the surgery he had, so Brady should be a lot better this year than he was last year.  The defense is still older than my grandmother, the line has had its issues, we don’t know what’s going to happen with Wes Welker, Randy Moss is losing a step with every game he plays, and the running back situation, for the umpteenth straight year, has not been solved.  Brady alone can get them to 10-6 and the playoffs, and then ask every New England fan how that worked out against Baltimore last year.

That leaves one team left; the New York Jets.  If you’re a Jets fan, your glass is permanently half empty.  This year, though, things are changing.  Jets fans have a swagger about them.  They believe they’re going to win a Super Bowl… and soon.  Like, this year soon.  A look at their recent history shows that this isn’t the first time they’ve had this feeling over the last decade, and every other time they’ve had it, they did not win the Super Bowl.

Is it really so hard to imagine Revis being bitter about his contract all year long, and not being the best defender in the league?  Or Mark Sanchez taking on an added workload, and turning into the next Matt Leinart?  Will the unceremonious dumping of Alan Faneca hurt the Jets more than they can even imagine?  What will having Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes on the same field do for a young and fragile Sanchez?  Will LDT accept less than 12 touches a game?  What stupid thing will Rex Ryan say that will derail the entire season?

Like them or hate them, you have to admit you're fascinated by this years New York Jets...

As a Jets fan, I’d be worried.  Some are, the ones that have been around long enough to remember all of the pain of the last 30 years.  A lot aren’t worried, and they’ll quickly learn that there is a reason the Jets are one of the more tortured fanbases in American sports.

At the very least, Hard Knocks should be incredibly entertaining this year.

So, we’re a little over a month away from opening night.  Hope springs eternal for every NFL franchise.  Every fan (except probably Bills fans) thinks their team can make the playoffs this year if one or two things go their way.  Enjoy that feeling.  August is about the excitement of the unknown.  Just remember, if you have three friends that are fans of three different teams from your own, the best case scenario is that one of the four of you is going to have a good season.