We are still more than 3 months away from week one of the NFL Season. Yahoo! hasn’t even opened registration for their fantasy game, yet (it should be coming in the next two weeks). But, my main fantasy draft is exactly 100 days away, so I’ll give you my first of what will likely be 4 or 5 mock drafts between now and that draft itself.
Take what I say as you may. I am the Peyton Manning of fantasy football. I’ve gone 22-4 over the last two regular seasons, but am only 1-2 in the playoffs. I can get you to the end, but I can’t help you win. For that, you’re on your own.
- Adrian Peterson, MIN
- Chris Johnson, TEN
- Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
- Ray Rice, BAL
- Frank Gore, SF
- Michael Turner, ATL
- Andre Johnson, HOU
- Drew Brees, NO
- Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ
- Stephen Jackson, STL
- Aaron Rodgers, GB
- Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
- Reggie Wayne, IND
- Cedric Benson, CIN
- Randy Moss, NE
- Jamal Charles, KC
- Ryan Grant, GB
- DeAngelo Williams, CAR
- Peyton Manning, IND
- Brandon Marshall, MIA
- Calvin Johnson, DET
- Miles Austin, DAL
- Philip Rivers, SD
- Roddy White, ATL
- Shonn Greene, NYJ
- Tom Brady, NE
- Jonathan Stewart, CAR
- Joseph Addai, IND
- LeSean McCoy, PHI
- Sydney Rice, MIN
- Greg Jennings, GB
- Matt Schaub, HOU
- Vincent Jackson, SD
- Knowshon Moreno, DEN
- DeSean Jackson, PHI
- Marques Colston, NO
- Beanie Wells, ARZ
- Steve Smith, CAR
- Matt Forte, CHI
- Pierre Thomas, NO
- Ryan Mathews, SD
- Anquan Boldin, BAL
- Tony Romo, DAL
- Chad Ochocinco, CIN
- Felix Jones, DAL
- Steve Smith, NYG
- Mike Sims-Walker, JAC
- Hines Ward, PIT
- Dallas Clark, IND
- Pierre Garcon, IND
Picks 1-10: If I’m drafting today, which luckily I’m not, I’m taking Peterson ahead of Johnson. Yes, Johnson single-handedly won a lot of people a lot of money last year, but now he wants to get paid for it. I don’t know if he’ll hold out, or not hold out, for what will happen, but holdouts ruin seasons, and if he is holding out he’s going to find himself on my person ‘do not draft’ list. MJD & Rice are solid at 3-4, and then things get tricky. Gore & Turner are the safe picks next, but I’m not fully sold on either of them. I almost talked myself into Andre Johnson 5th, but I couldn’t do it. The biggest question mark for me is Stephen Jackson at 10. That’s one of those ‘he’s available so you have to take him, but you’ll cringe as you do it’ picks.
Picks 11-20: Aaron Rodgers is a fringe first rounder, and when all is said & done, he may be the #1 QB taken this August. Right now, I still like Brees ahead of him, but not by much. Mendenhall is my first stretch of the draft. Yes, he’s unknown, but look at the other RBs taken behind him. Do you really think Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, or DeAngelo Williams is going to win you a fantasy championship this year? Me either. Mendenhall might not, either. Or he may be this years Chris Johnson. I feel slightly less confident about Jamal Charles, but I view him the same way I view Mendenhall. Only reason Charles dropped and Mendenhall didn’t was Thomas Jones is sharing the backfield with Charles. Randy Moss & Brandon Marshall are both big question marks this year. Moss is aging, and doesn’t have Wes Welker lining up across from him anymore; and Marshall always seems to have turmoil surrounding him. In the end, I think both will give you productive seasons. But if you want a top of the line WR, you’re better off reaching for Johnson or Fitz, or playing the waiting game and getting someone in round three.
Picks 21-30: Looking at the list of players who go here, one thing is very clear. If you are in a 12 team league, and you pick near the top in round one, chances are you are going to be very unhappy with your 2nd & 3rd round picks. Say you take ADP #1, there’s a chance you could turn around and follow that up with Roddy White & Shonn Greene. While you’re loving your draft after 1 pick, how happy are you now after 3? I have to imagine not so happy. This is a great year to pick 9-12, and then load up on talent in the 3rd & 4th round that it too big of a risk to take at pick #25.
Shonn Greene & LeSean McCoy are the two biggest risks of this group of picks. Greene is completely unknown at this point, especially with LDT in the backfield with him. But if the Jets do plan on getting him 250+ touches, he will be a fantasy starter for somebody. McCoy may have more upside at this point, because he is the man in Philadelphia, but we saw what Greene could do last playoffs, which is why I have him rated higher right now. Sydney Rice will move up the board if Favre comes back, and drop much lower if Favre retires. I think this is the year Jonathan Stewart supplants Williams as the man in Carolina.
Picks 31-40: Matt Schaub is the 6th QB off the board, and if you don’t have a QB by the time he goes, you’re looking at a mix of Brett Favre, Tony Romo, or someone like Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb or Kevin Kolb as your starting QB for the season. They all have upside, but I’d feel a lot safer with one of the big 6.
Knowshon Moreno & Beanie Wells are solid picks to me this year. I’m not reading too much into Moreno’s rookie campaign at this point, and I’d be willing to take a chance on him as my #2 RB. Wells I think could be in for a breakout season. He reminds me of Ray Rice at this time last year, and I think by the time drafts roll around a lot of people are going to be all over the Wells bandwagon. Matt Forte is an interesting choice. Two years ago he was the hot rookie, last year he was a Top 5 pick, and now he’s not even a Top 5 Round pick according to some people. I had him last year, and yes he was a bust, but he wasn’t a bad #2 fantasy RB. And I find it hard to believe that there are people who would rather take Felix Jones, Ronnie Brown, and Ricky Williams ahead of Matt Forte.
Picks 41-50: Ryan Mathews is the first rookie off the board. This could definitely change by August. Jahvid Best may find himself the first rookie taken when all is said and done. For now, I like Mathews chances of being a gamechanger in SD, and would have no problem starting the season with him as my #2 fantasy back (as long as I had someone like Clinton Portis as my #3). I don’t like Romo or Ochocinco, and would probably pass over them if I were sitting there with the 43rd pick, but I can’t deny that at this time they most likely have more upside than Steve Smith and Mike Sims-Walker. Dallas Clark is the first TE taken, and he should be.
So maybe this wasn’t a mock draft, really. Just a Top 50 Fantasy Players list. I’ll admit, though, its a bit early for me to do a complete round by round mock draft. That will come, probably in the first or second week of August. For now, consider this something to just get you a little bit excited for fantasy football, before you go & forget about it for a month while you watch the World Cup.
Because don’t forget, the World Cup starts in 3 weeks, and as soon as it’s over, NFL Training Camps open, and its time to start getting very serious about your fantasy preparation.
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